Based on the political activities of Senator Boyle this year compared to 2018… WORDMAN™ has to ask that question.
In the first six months of 2018, Senator Boyle raised $25,110 from 70 individual donors and spent $40,853 on his campaign.
In the same period this year, those corresponding numbers are $0 and $7,786!
Most political observers simply compare the candidates ‘Cash on Hand’ [COH] totals to determine how a race may unfold.
In elections where a large COH advantage exists for one candidate, this one factor alone, almost always accurately predicts the winner.
In this year’s NYS Senate – District 4 election, however…the COH difference between the candidates is relatively small. As of their financial filings through 6/30:
- PELLIGRINO $75,947
- BOYLE $64,229
*Factoring in Ms Pelligrino’s $12,000 personal loan to her campaign, their totals are virtually even.
Without a COH advantage to use as a predictive factor, WORDMAN™ searches ‘under the radar’ to analyze this race…and sees some troubling warning signs for Senator Boyle’s re-election campaign.
In the 6 month period from 1/1 through 6/30:
Ms. Pelligrino raised $29,665 from 175 individuals [an average contribution of $169]
As stated above, Mr. Boyle reported $0 contributions from individuals.
Equally as important as the obvious disparity in the dollars contributed by individuals, is what WORDMAN™ calls…‘The Donor Multiplier Effect’ [DME].
Here’s why ‘DME’ is important:
Donors, by definition are not passive supporters…they have skin in the game!
And more importantly…a substantial number of Ms. Pelligrino’s donors live in the district.
Not only does this translate directly into votes…it kicks in the DME!
That is…ALL of these donors with ‘skin in the game’ have family, neighbors and colleagues who also live and vote in the district.
Additionally…Ms. Pelligrino raised $32,375 from corporations, unions and other candidates.
In comparison, Mr. Boyle received $0 from corporations, unions and other candidates…only $2,000 from two PACs.
Corporations, with their many employees…and unions with their membership within the district provide another key advantage for Ms. Pelligrino derived by the DME.
ANOTHER ALARM BELL: This was always a solid Republican district. However, over the years, the voter registration edge in this district has gradually shifted to the point where this district is now a +D district [72,002 to 61,364], based on the latest available voter registration data [2/21/20].
ONE FINAL CAVEAT: All contributions and expenses are only reflected through 6/30 [the latest financial reports]. As we near September, the present state of the campaigns may be already be completely different.
BOTTOM-LINE: This is an ‘Under The Radar‘ potential upset in a district that has been represented Republicans since at least 1972… when Owen Johnson was first elected.
WORDMAN™ will be following this race closely in the weeks to come.
To learn more about each candidate, click on their name[listed alphabetically]:
To view other post about the NYS Senate, click here.